Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
